Currency Exchange Rate Only Has Limited Negative Impacts On Chinese Exports

- Sep.17, 2010

*Source: "Yiwu Market Daily"

Since 2010,debt crisis led to sharp depreciation of the euro by about 15% during this period, the RMB exchange rate pegged to the dollar, the yuan, together with the U.S. dollar appreciated sharply against the euro.

According to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published a relatively new data show that nominal effective exchange rate appreciation since November last year by 4.8% in April to May this year, is between the rapid appreciation of 2.4%.

This showed that the passive appreciation of the characteristics of one yuan is obvious. Substantial depreciation of the euro, so that people worry about China's exports to Europe will suffer a heavy blow, the recent re-start the foreign exchange reform is deepened this concern, but the market shows some relatively positive view.

The passive appreciation of the RMB against the euro, will not lead to China's exports to Europe suffered heavy losses.

Because the depreciation of the euro within the EU market competitiveness of Chinese products is very limited short-term impact of China's export growth to Europe the negative impact is smaller than expected. This view is based on the following reasons:

First, from the China Customs released the 21 classes, 99 chapters, thousands of products (four-digit code) import and export data can be seen in China and the EU, almost every product is "come and go ", However, comparing the number and amount of import and export can be found, the EU exports to China are mostly the product unit price of Chinese exports to the EU than the unit price of the product several times higher.

This indicates that, in most segments of the product market, Chinese companies and European companies are located in high-end products and low ends of the market, there is no obvious mutual competition. Chinese exports to the EU many of the products produced within the European Union has long refused. Even doubling the price of imports, the EU has already withdrawn from the market makers will not return to prostitution.

Therefore, the depreciation of the euro is unlikely to reduce imports in the EU market share. Further analysis, the euro fell against the purchasing power of the impact will be passed to the reduction in the number purchased, thus indirectly reduce imports, but the impact on high-end merchandise than the large low-grade goods. This is because the euro, leading to the EU market prices of imported products, there imported inflation. In the name of the purchaser under the same budget, the price rise will lead to decline in real purchasing power of buyers, their actual purchase amount will be reduced. Under normal circumstances, the actual purchasing power decrease will result in buyers purchasing lower the number of all items. Among them, reduce the number of high-end goods to buy more, and reduce the number of low-grade products to buy less. In extreme cases, the buyer may reduce the purchase of luxury goods at the same time, increase the purchase of inferior goods (so-called "Giffen goods").

Secondly, Chinese companies face in the EU market, the main rival of China's development stage from similar developing countries, Te Bie is located in China's neighboring of some countries and regions. Significant depreciation of the euro against the yuan in the course of the euro currency in these countries and regions, the depreciation rates are similar.

This depreciation of the euro does not change China's export enterprises and export enterprises around the country and the region's competitive advantage in the EU market, there is no change in their respective market share.

Moreover, even if the active appreciation of the yuan slightly, this effect will not be 100% delivered to China and its neighboring countries and regions, the relative price changes on products. In the past 10 years, the growth in size of the same time, the Chinese economy has increased rapidly with the neighboring Guo Jia and Di Qu links yuan exchange rate of the neighboring countries and regions have significant Zhao Ying Xiang Huo Bi exchange rate. If the yuan appreciation, neighboring countries and regions will follow the appreciation of the currency.

A noteworthy phenomenon is that in the People's Bank announced the re-start the first trading day of the exchange rate reform, RMB has appreciated 0.43% against the dollar, neighboring countries and regional currency appreciated against the dollar even more than the rate of the RMB.

From the long-term data, if the yuan in the next 6 to 12 months active appreciation of 1% -3%, China's exports would not be a great blow. The current exchange rate of euro against the yuan at about 8.38 the level of observation, it is far from what the most severe cases. From the historical data, beginning at the end of 1999 to 3 years, the euro exchange rate has been lower than the current exchange rate, the minimum had twice hit the 7 lower than the current exchange rate close to 20%. In addition, in May this year, nominal effective exchange rate of 116.21, is not considered a record high.

According to the analysis, the current RMB exchange rate changes (mainly the yuan appreciation against the euro, a substantial passive), the European Union on Chinese export growth of adverse effects is still quite limited.

P.S. the first half of this year, prices of raw materials prices, labor market structure adjustment of global economic recovery and slow growth in the process of pressure frequently, and the macroeconomic situation is still grim, Yiwu market to take small profits as the main trading volume characteristics, the bargaining power foreign exchange and other trading process are relatively weak, active and passive appreciation of the RMB largely squeezed the profit margins of businesses, adverse effects can not be ignored.

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